According to the expert’s forecasts in Russia, a significant rise in prices for plant protection products (PPP) is expected and a shortage of some types of pesticides is possible in 2022. The rise in prices for basic plant protection products in the country will average 40-50%.

Prerequisites

1. Energy crisis in China
Experts say the main reason for the rise in prices is the large-scale energy crisis in China, which has been going on since the summer of 2021. Due to the lack of electricity in China, chemical plants that produce up to 85% of the global volume of active ingredients used in the production of plant protection products, have reduced their capacities. There was a shortage of the components and their cost increased many times. For example, glyphosate, which is widely used in the industry, has risen in price by 360% from January to November 2021.
Restrictions on the production of plant protection products may continue until 2023.

2. Growth of container shipping costs.

Most of the active ingredients and plant protection products themselves are produced in China and delivered by sea container transport, the cost of which increased by 5-7 times at the beginning of 2021 and continued its further progressive rise.

3. Rising prices for raw materials

The cheapest, widely used generics, produced with organic solvents, have increased in price by 10-15% following the rise in prices for petroleum products from which organic solvents are obtained.

4. Regulation of PPP turnover

The Federal State Information System for Traceability of Pesticides and Agrochemicals (FSIS PPA) will be introduced from 2022. It limits the use of counterfeit products, but causes temporary difficulties in established PPP supply chains and requires additional efforts from both importers and distributors (organization batch accounting, compliance of warehouses, introduction of a control system for goods movement, registration of supervised objects). Last summer, the customs clearance period has increased to one month.

The pricing policy of Russian producers of pesticides is also influenced by other factors, such as the pandemic, the global logistics crisis, and the volatility of the Ruble.

Consequences
The rise in the price of pesticides will have adverse consequences for the domestic agricultural sector. Together with the increase in the cost of mineral fertilizers and the global demand for food supply, an additional increase in prices for crop products within the country is expected. According to the estimates of the Kuban Ministry of Agriculture, even now the part of plant protection products and fertilizers in the cost of agricultural products in the region reaches 45%.
Changes are also expected on the Russian plant protection products market itself, which may also affect its structure, volumes, and positions of leading members. Previously, this market was one of the most stable. The consumption of pesticides by farmers in the Russian Federation has gradually increased, having increased 8.5 times over 20 years. In 2021, according to preliminary calculations, it will amount to 190 thousand tons.

Thus, it is expected:
- rise in prices;
- decrease in the availability of plant protection products;
- shortage or, possibly, a complete absence of products on the market for certain items;
- significant difficulties for small importers and local distributors.


Import substitution

The industry representatives propose to develop their own production in Russia. A number of them have begun implementing pilot projects for the synthesis of particular active ingredients in cooperation with Russian chemical concerns and the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation. However, there is a risk that, due to the limited capabilities of the domestic chemical industry and the low market capacity in Russia, the production of only a small number of components for plant protection products will be profitable. The rest of the range of substances for distributors will continue to be easier and cheaper to purchase in China.

Sources (in Russian)

https://direct.farm/post/4-prichiny-povysheniya-tsen-na-pestitsidy-v-2022-godu-10891
https://postanalitika.ru/increase-prices-pesticides-in-russia/